Specialists forecast billions of dollars in additional consumer spending in the automotive repair industry over the next few years. Mike Bennett puts the figure at $26 to $30 billion over two to three years. What are you doing today to make sure your shop gets a piece of it?
In episode 69 of Maximum Octane, Mike, an ATI automotive management coach, executive coach, and Ratchet+Wrench writer, returns to talk with Kim Hickey about the trends shaping the industry as of early 2023. He explains why auto repair is somewhat sheltered from the economy, debunks the myth that Americans are driving less, and identifies the segments he believes will drive growth.
What You Will Learn
- Why is our industry a bit sheltered from the state of the U.S economy, and how can we benefit from that
- The “Americans don’t drive anymore” myth
- What are the things that are impacting consumers’ confidence, and how does that affect our industry
- How many resets do business owners need?
- Why we don’t see loyalty to brands anymore
- The four segments that’ll attract $26 to $30 billion into the Automotive Industry
Why Auto Repair Is Sheltered From the Economy
Mike opens by explaining why the auto repair industry is somewhat insulated from the state of the U.S. economy. People need their vehicles to get to work, take kids to school, and live their lives. When money is tight, many choose to repair their current vehicle rather than buy a new one. That makes repair more resilient than many other industries.
ATI’s High Prices Are a Win for the Auto Repair Industry and Fall ShowCase: Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook explore similar themes.
Several factors support demand for auto repair. The average age of vehicles on American roads has been rising for years, according to industry data, which means more cars need maintenance and repairs as they age. New vehicle prices have also risen significantly, encouraging many owners to keep their current vehicles longer. These trends tend to benefit independent repair shops, especially those that build trust with customers who want to keep older vehicles running safely.
That resilience is not unlimited. Severe economic downturns can still affect customer spending, which is why shops benefit from strong customer relationships and diverse service offerings.
The practical takeaway for owners is to make it easy for customers to keep their current vehicles running. That means clear maintenance recommendations based on the vehicle’s age and mileage, honest prioritization of what needs attention now versus later, and service reminders that bring customers back before small problems become expensive ones. Shops that position themselves as long-term partners in keeping an older vehicle reliable, rather than as places to go only when something breaks, tend to earn more of the repair spending that economic uncertainty pushes toward the aftermarket.
The “Americans Don’t Drive Anymore” Myth
Around the 7 minute mark, Mike tackles the myth that Americans are driving less. While driving patterns shifted during the pandemic, vehicles remain central to American life. The Federal Highway Administration publishes Traffic Volume Trends data that tracks vehicle miles traveled across the country.
Driving patterns changed temporarily during the pandemic as many people worked from home and traveled less. Since then, vehicle miles traveled have largely recovered according to federal highway data. Even with remote and hybrid work, Americans continue to rely on vehicles for commuting, errands, family activities, and travel. That ongoing dependence supports steady demand for maintenance and repair.
Consumer Confidence and Repair Decisions
Mike discusses the factors affecting consumer confidence and how they influence the industry. When people feel uncertain about the economy, they may delay non-urgent repairs or shop more carefully. Shops that communicate clearly, build trust, and help customers plan maintenance can keep customers moving forward even during uncertain times.
When confidence is low, customers may prioritize essential repairs and delay maintenance. Shops can respond by clearly explaining which repairs are urgent for safety and which can wait, helping customers plan and budget. Offering financing options and maintenance plans can also make needed services more accessible during uncertain times.
At the counter, this looks like a conversation rather than a list. An advisor might group inspection findings into safety items that should be addressed today, items that will need attention in the next few months, and items to watch. Customers who understand the reasoning are more likely to approve urgent work and to schedule the rest instead of disappearing. Recording deferred work in the shop management system and following up at the right time keeps those recommendations from being forgotten and gives customers a plan they can budget for.
How Many Resets Do Owners Need?
Around the 24 minute mark, Mike asks how many “resets” business owners need. Every disruption, from a pandemic to a parts shortage, forces owners to rethink how they operate. Mike’s point is that owners who keep waiting for things to return to “normal” miss the chance to adapt and grow.
Each disruption, whether a pandemic, supply chain crisis, or labor shortage, forces owners to adapt. Some owners respond by building more resilient businesses, with stronger teams, better systems, and financial reserves. Others hope to return to old ways of doing things. Mike’s point is that change is constant, and owners who accept that reality are better positioned to thrive.
One way owners build resilience is by reviewing their business after each disruption and asking what it revealed. A parts shortage might show the shop relies too heavily on a single supplier. A sudden staffing gap might show that critical knowledge lives with one person. A slow month might show that marketing stopped too early. Treating each disruption as a stress test, and fixing the weaknesses it exposed, means the next one hits a stronger business. Owners who simply wait for things to settle often face the same problems again.
Why Brand Loyalty Is Fading
Mike explains why customers are less loyal to brands than they once were. That shift cuts both ways. It means your customers may be open to other shops, but it also means customers loyal to competitors or dealers may be open to you. Exceptional experiences and strong relationships are how shops earn and keep loyalty in this environment.
Today’s customers have more information and options than ever. Online reviews, price comparisons, and social media make it easy to research and switch providers. That shift means loyalty must be earned through consistent experience, trust, and value. Shops that deliver outstanding service build loyalty that is harder for competitors to break.
For independent shops, fading brand loyalty is an opening with dealer customers in particular. Owners of vehicles that are out of factory warranty often look for a trusted alternative, especially if they have had a frustrating dealer experience. Making it clear that the shop services their make, can perform factory-recommended maintenance, and offers a strong warranty helps remove hesitation. The same logic applies in reverse: a shop’s own customers can drift away after one poor experience, so consistency at every visit protects the loyalty already earned.
The Four Segments Driving Growth
Mike closes by identifying the four segments he expects to bring $26 to $30 billion into the automotive industry. Listen to the episode for his full breakdown. Shop owners who understand where growth is coming from can position their services, training, and marketing to capture it.
Understanding where industry growth is coming from helps owners make smarter investments in training, equipment, and marketing. Industry reports from organizations like the Auto Care Association regularly analyze trends in vehicle age, miles driven, and aftermarket spending, which can help owners anticipate demand.
Using Industry Trends to Guide Shop Decisions
National forecasts are useful context, but every shop operates in a local market. Owners can combine industry outlooks with their own data: which vehicle makes and model years appear most often, which services are growing, which repairs are being sent out, and where customers live. Comparing this information year over year shows whether the shop is capturing growth or missing it.
Trends should inform decisions without driving panic purchases. A new piece of equipment or a training investment makes the most sense when local demand supports it and the team is ready to use it well. Reviewing trends during annual planning, alongside financial results and staffing, helps owners make deliberate choices about where to invest next.
Preparing for Changing Vehicle Technology
One of the biggest trends shaping the future of auto repair is changing vehicle technology. Advanced driver assistance systems, increasing electrification, and connected vehicles are changing what repairs look like and what skills technicians need. Shops that invest in training and equipment for these technologies can capture growing segments of the market.
That investment should be guided by local demand. Reviewing the types of vehicles customers bring in, and watching trends in the local market, helps owners decide when and how to invest. Mike’s broader message is that owners who stay informed, plan ahead, and adapt will find opportunity even in a changing industry.
How to Position Your Shop for Growth
- Review which services are growing fastest in your shop and why.
- Invest in training and equipment for the vehicles you expect to see more of.
- Build maintenance plans that help customers budget for future work.
- Focus marketing on customers who may be loosening their dealer loyalty.
Mike’s first Maximum Octane episode, Learning to Get Out of Our Company’s Way, covers the CEO mindset. For planning the year ahead, listen to Don Walter in How to Create Achievable Goals for Your Business, and for technology trends, listen to Is AI Here to Fix the Automotive Industry?
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the auto repair industry recession resistant?
Auto repair is often described as more resilient than many industries, because people depend on their vehicles to get to work and handle daily life. When budgets tighten, many owners choose to repair their current vehicle instead of buying a new one. That resilience is not complete, though. Customers may delay maintenance or non-urgent repairs during tough times. Shops that build trust, prioritize recommendations clearly, and stay in touch with customers are best positioned during downturns.
Are Americans driving less than they used to?
Driving dipped during the pandemic but has largely recovered, according to federal highway data on vehicle miles traveled. Even with more remote and hybrid work, people still rely on vehicles for errands, family activities, travel, and many jobs. For repair shops, steady driving means steady wear on vehicles, which supports ongoing demand for maintenance and repair. Owners can track federal traffic volume reports to follow these trends over time.
Why are customers less loyal to brands today?
Customers have more information and choices than ever. Online reviews, price comparisons, and social media make it easy to research options and switch providers. As a result, loyalty is earned through experience rather than assumed. For independent shops, this creates an opportunity to win customers from dealers and competitors, but it also means every visit matters. Consistent quality, clear communication, and genuine care are the most reliable ways to keep customers coming back.
How can a repair shop prepare for changes in vehicle technology?
Start by looking at the vehicles your customers drive today and those likely to arrive over the next few years. Invest in training for technicians on systems such as advanced driver assistance and hybrid or electric powertrains as local demand grows. Plan equipment purchases based on realistic volume. Partnering with training providers and staying active in industry groups helps owners stay informed so investments are timed well rather than rushed.
Resources and Links From This Episode
Connect With the Guests
- Mike: LinkedIn
